When Breakthrough surveyed their shipper clients last August at The Mercury Group, they overwhelmingly predicted a freight market flip in Q2 2025. Yet, Q2 has come and gone, and increased freight demand remains elusive. According to Breakthrough's ecosystem of real-time, shipper-transacted data, April marked the third consecutive month of volume declines across most sectors—with the exception of paper and packaging.

Projections from Breakthrough's Chief Economist, Matt Muenster, suggest that gradual linehaul rate increases may begin by late Q3 2025 and continue into 2026. But for now, transportation leaders are grappling with macroeconomic pressures, trade policy uncertainty, and sustainability goals that make adaptive strategies essential. In this uncertain landscape, transportation leaders are embracing innovative practices and rethinking traditional RFP strategies to stay ahead.

Prepare for shifting freight market dynamics

The transportation industry is taking a more tactical approach to maneuver through the current uncertainty. According to our 2025 State of Transportation Report, both shippers and carriers are rethinking their operations and developing new strategies to adapt effectively ahead of the anticipated market flip. Here's a closer look:

How Shippers Are Preparing

55% are expanding modes
52% are working to secure the lowest linehaul rates ahead of time
47% are expanding volume with core strategic carriers
47% are implementing advanced forecasting tools to predict demand more accurately

How Carriers Are Responding

Carriers are eagerly waiting for an uptick in freight demand, with 49% planning to expand their fleet size or services once market conditions improve. However, current market dynamics have constrained their ability to invest in new equipment, which could jeopardize relationships with the 37% of shippers now prioritizing partnerships with more sustainable carriers. As 30% of shippers turn to alternative energy to make progress toward their sustainability goals, carriers are under pressure to align their expansion plans with environmentally friendly investments.

Adaptability is key for both shippers and carriers in this volatile landscape. Shippers are focused on cost-cutting strategies and are using innovative solutions to make small yet impactful adjustments to their networks. For example, shippers are stacking wins using compliance monitoring tools to address deviations from RFP plans to maintain budget and using trusted benchmarking tools to identify outlier lanes. Carriers, on the other hand, are prioritizing adaptability by forging stronger partnerships with shippers to better align on expectations and proactively address challenges before they initiate their next RFP.

Commit to doing more in this year's RFP season

The freight market continues to be uncertain, requiring stakeholders to think of adaptive and innovative strategies to build a competitive advantage. In these challenging conditions, one key lesson stands out: resilience requires doing more in this year's RFP events.

More Collaboration: Work with an external transportation partner to provide fresh insights into your network and competitive positioning.
More Creativity: Run and analyze more than 100 unique scenarios to develop the precise strategy you need, creating the most resilient and efficient network for 2026.
More Flexibility: Adapt to a more flexible negotiating strategy to respond effectively to changing market conditions and carrier feedback.
More Analysis: Leverage analytics by mode, carrier, product line, or lane to identify inefficiencies and opportunities. This includes reviewing metrics like historical rates, target benchmarks, service performance, and SmartWay scores.
More Time: An RFP process typically takes 10–16 weeks. Allow additional time for a more thorough analysis and refined results.
More Effort: To achieve the best outcomes requires meticulous planning and execution. Invest time to create an accurate baseline, identify the right carriers for each lane at a competitive price, and analyze data between rounds to achieve desired outcomes.

The challenge of committing to more

In today’s demanding freight market, committing to more can often feel unattainable. With the constant pressure to optimize operations, reduce costs, and enhance performance, many organizations find it challenging to dedicate the necessary resources to achieve these goals. However, the right technology stack, coupled with advanced AI capabilities, can bridge this gap. By uncovering actionable insights from complex data and streamlining decision-making processes, shippers can maximize efficiency and focus their time on strategic priorities.

Optimize Your RFP Strategy with Data-Driven Insights

Winning in this freight market demands resilience, innovation, and collaboration. While the anticipated freight market flip may be delayed, strategic preparation will give shippers the data they need to achieve results that balance costs with operational efficiency. For a comprehensive analysis of the latest trends and actionable insights from shippers and carriers, download Breakthrough’s 2025 State of Transportation Report.

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